90.) Middle Tennessee State (written by SarCoog)
‘08 Record: 5-7 (3-4 Sun Belt)
Overview: The name of the game under MTSU coach Rick Stockstill has been respectability, since he arrived as coach in 2006. The Blue Raiders have been a solid program in the last three years, but back-to-back 5-7 seasons have likely worn out some of the goodwill generated from the first ever bowl appearance in ‘06 (a 31-14 loss to Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl). One of the biggest recent issues has been offense and last year the Blue Raiders only scored higher than 28 points once and that was a 52-point outburst against lowly North Texas. Stockstill brought in as the OC spread offense guru Tony Franklin who had previous stops at Kentucky, Troy and an infamous recent stint at Auburn. Franklin has patented “The System” which was his variation on the spread, and for a while made money selling his secrets and conducting clinics on the offense. Junior QB Dwight Dasher (156 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT) is a bit undersized, but had starting experience from the ‘07 season and Franklin has preferred mobile signal callers at his previous stops. I’d expect freshman Brett Burnette and Juco transfer Ryan Rosenvall to push for the starting job, but Dasher will be starter come September 5th against Clemson. Senior RB Phillip Tanner (714 rushing yards, 3.8 yards/carry, 15 TD) will be entering his 2nd year as the starter and should have greatly improved numbers. It’s worth noting that Tanner closed the ‘08 season with 3 straight 100+ yard performances and will have fellow senior Desmond Gee (205 rushing yards, 3.2 yards/carry) complimenting him as a speedy, all-purpose guy. Dasher will have an All-Sun Belt receiver to throw to as well: sophomore Malcom Beyah (33 receptions, 550 yards, 6 TD). In addition to those two, the Blue Raiders have their top 9 receivers back from last year. But probably the most significant factor will be how much the offensive line has improved coming into this season. They return two All-Sun Belt linemen: junior OG Jamal Lewis and junior OT Mark Fisher. Also, sophomore OT Mike Williams was the graded as the best lineman by the MTSU coaching staff and freshman All-Sun Belt. Finally, junior OG Jeremy Michel, who transferred from Baylor should at least push for playing time after sitting out last year. Simply, this is one of the more experienced lines in the country and probably the best in the Sun Belt. There will be some growing pains in Franklin’s new offensive system, but at least there is a lot of experience to go around.
There isn’t as much returning talent on the Blue Raider defense, but they also performed better over the course of last season. They turned in superb performances against BCS schools Maryland (24-14), Kentucky (14-20) and in a nationally-televised win over Florida Atlantic (14-13). But there were an equal number of clunkers against the better Sun Belt offenses like: FIU (21-31), Louisiana (28-42), Troy (17-31) and even the offensively-challenged Arkansas State (14-31). In terms of raw talent, the Blue Raiders have what could be an excellent defensive line. Junior DE Jarrett Crittenton should finally see this field this fall and will compete with senior Chris McCoy (23 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 sacks) at one of the ends. Crittenton was rated as a top 30 ‘08 Juco player by Rivals.com, but redshirted last season. Senior DT Brandon Perry (14 tackles, 1.5 TFL) was also highly-touted coming into MTSU, but has been plagued by injuries for most of his collegiate career. Also, senior DT Dwight Smith (30 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 sack) and junior DE Emmanuel Perez (33 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 sack) are returning starters from last season. Outside of the Blue Raiders’ leading returning tackler: senior LB Danny Carmichael (89 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks) there isn’t much returning experience in the linebacker corps. The secondary returns last year’s interception leaders: junior FS Jeremy Killem (72 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT) and junior CB Alex Suber (26 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT). The only real loss in the secondary from the ‘08 season is CB Ted Riley. I would expect the Blue Raider defense to equal or improve upon last year’s production, although there are a lot of question marks in the front seven.
Reasons for Optimism: With 10 starters back and a guy who has a reputation for high-octane offense, I have a hard time believing the Blue Raiders won’t improve a lot on offense this year. The biggest issue in ‘08 was a run game that ranked 102nd in the country and that’ll also improve with an experienced back (Tanner) and an experienced offensive line. With an improved offense and a defense that looks to at least equal last year’s production… why shouldn’t the faithful a winning season? Also, they have winnable road games against lower-tier Sun Belt teams: North Texas and Louisiana-Monroe.
Reasons for Pessimism: One can never be too certain of the results when a new offensive system is brought in. Sure the talent is there, but how long will it take Dwight Dasher and company to learn the Tony Franklin offense? I don’t anticipate Franklin will go through a situation like the disaster at Auburn last year, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the Blue Raider offense tears it up from day one. The non-conference schedule isn’t a killer, but they’ll certainly be underdogs in each game. The defense can’t look so bad against the better offenses they face and there are a lot of new faces on that side of the ball.
Season Prediction: There are a good number of predictions I’ll miss the mark on and I think this could be one of those situations. As much as I like the hiring of Franklin, it’ll take a decent amount of time just to learn his system. They could very well go 0-4 against a non-conference schedule of Maryland, Memphis, Mississippi State and Clemson. They’ll also have to go on the road against the two best teams in the Sun Belt: Troy and Florida Atlantic. I predict a 6-6 season that’ll be an improvement over last year, but won’t have the Blue Raiders in the bowl picture.
Top Web Destinations: Blue Raider Zone or Go Middle.com
89.) UNLV (written by ElViento)
’08 Record: 5-7 (2-6 MWC)
Overview: Call it the Curse of Harvey Hyde? In 1984, the Runnin’ Rebels had their most successful season at the Division 1 level, finishing with an 11-2 record, led by QB Randall Cunningham, and head coach Hyde. The season was capped off by a 30-13 victory over Toledo in the California Bowl, UNLV’s first ever bowl appearance.
However, it was soon discovered that the ’84 team had used some ineligible players (none in the bowl game), and the Big West Conference voided all of UNLV’s wins from the season, including the bowl victory. (The NCAA and the Rebels still list the wins.)
After the ’85 season, Hyde was fired, and the UNLV program has never come close to achieving those types of heights again. Furthermore, Hyde’s only coaching job after UNLV was a one-year stint under legendary NFL coach George Allen at Long Beach State in 1990. Shortly after the season, Allen died. Many tie Allen’s death from ventricular fibrillation to a Gatorade bath he received after the last game of the ’90 season, in chilly weather conditions. That game was a win over UNLV.
No coach since Hyde has posted a career winning record at UNLV, including current head man Mike Sanford, who has earned just 12 wins in four seasons. The Rebels have been to just two bowl games since Hyde, and haven’t gone bowling since 2000.
Although he indisputably entered a bad situation, Sanford was likely fighting for his job in 2008, after opening his tenure with three straight two-win seasons. Although he couldn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game in ’08, he saved his job with an admirable improvement, with five wins, including UNLV’s biggest upset in program history (over then-#15 Arizona State). Sanford was also able to avenge a (hilariously) disputed 2006 loss to Iowa State.
One final tidbit: a member of UNLV’s kicking tandem, Ben Jaekle, has a “from the stands” story that even Texas Tech can’t top. As a redshirting walk-on in 2006, Jaekle was in the stands for the team’s season-opener, when the starting kicker went down with a serious injury. Jaekle literally received a phone call from the coaching staff while in the stands, telling him to suit up. He did, connecting on three extra points and a short field goal in that game, a win.
Reasons for Optimism: Despite just two conference wins a year ago, the Rebels look like one of the best second-tier Mountain West teams, after the clear first tier of Utah, BYU and TCU. Nevada-Las Vegas’s spread offense is in the good hands of junior QB Omar Clayton. In ’08, Clayton completed 152 of 258 passes for 1,894 yards and an impressive 18-4 TD-INT ratio. The program’s most prolific WR, Ryan Wolfe (88 rec., 1,040 yards, 6 TD in 2008), is back for his senior season, and while second-leading receiver Casey Flair is gone, talented sophomore Phillip Payne (29 rec., 436 yds, 7 TD) is ready to step up as the #2 man behind Wolfe.
The front seven on defense needs to improve for UNLV, but there is reason to believe that it will. The D-line returns a lot of starters, and adds some JuCo talent, including BJ Bell, one of the stars of the ’09 class. If Starr Fuimaono stays healthy, the Linebacking corps should be strong.
Also, UNLV in 2009 is scheduling the right way. They managed seven home games, including a couple of challenging-but-winnable non-conference games against Oregon State and Hawaii. It’s also worth note that recruiting is looking up under Sanford, who did some heavy-duty housecleaning upon taking over in ’05.
Reasons for Pessimism: The defense is a big question mark for the Rebels. Under second-year assistant, and first-year coordinator Dennis Therrell in 2008, the defense took a big step back. Total points allowed jumped by four from the year prior, yards allowed per carry went from 4.6 to 5.0, and sacks dropped in half to an anemic 11. Even if the front seven is competent, the secondary will rely heavily on newcomers, and looks like it will be a weakness against some of the pass-happier offenses in the MWC.
There’s also no sure thing at the running back position. Sophomore CJ Cox (207 yds, 3.5 ypc, 1 TD) looks like the starter heading into the season, but UNLV will likely miss the presence of graduated Frank Summers.
The Rebels are also going to need 100% production from a couple of injured defensive players who missed the spring, in LB Fuimaono and DB Quinton Pointer.
The Rebels would do well to put up a better fight against the in-state rival Nevada Wolf Pack. Under Sanford, UNLV is 0-4 against the team from Reno, losing by an average of 16 points.
Season Prediction: I’d be shocked to see UNLV break into the Big Three of the Mountain West, but anything else is possible for this team. Eight wins? Sure. Three wins? Wouldn’t surprise me, either. Their offense should keep them in games, but with a weak defense, the O alone wasn’t enough to get them to a bowl last year. Still, I’ll go out on a short limb, and say that this is the year that the Rebels get to their first bowl game since 2000.
Top Web Destination: Rebel-Net
88.) Michigan (written by SarCoog)
‘08 Record: 3-9 (2-6 Big Ten)
Overview: It’s almost a certainty that new coaches in college football will struggle in their first season at a school… but nobody struggled quite like new Wolverine coach Rich Rodriguez. The transition to completely new schemes and a lack of experienced offensive skill guys led to a 3-9 finish that was the worst in the history of Michigan football. The Rodriguez hire had its share of controversy in itself and the abject failure that was the ‘08 season certainly made for a rough first year in Ann Arbor. During the offseason QB Steven Threet (Arizona St.) and RB Sam McGuffie (Rice) transferred out, leaving the offense with 2 less experienced skill guys (although there were questions about Threet as a fit in the spread offense). Although junior QB Nick Sheridan (613 yards passing, 2 TD, 5 INT) is the most experienced returning signal caller, freshman Tate Forcier looks like the favorite to start after enrolling early to participate in spring practice. Forcier is a bit undersized, but he was rated by most recruiting services as one of the top dual-threat QBs in the country and is the best fit for the Rodriguez offense of anyone on the current roster. One more guy to keep an eye out for is incoming freshman Denard Robinson, who’s another good fit at QB for this offense. Senior RBs Brandon Minor (533 rushing yards, 5.2 yards/carry, 9 TD) and Carlos Brown (122 rushing yards, 4.2 yards/carry) look like they’ll get the most carries this coming season. Another incoming freshman, RB Vincent Smith, is a diminutive speedster that saw extensive action during the spring game and could see the field this fall. The Wolverine receivers are a very experienced unit and the two top ball-catchers from last year: sophomore Martavious Odoms (49 receptions, 443 yards) and senior Greg Matthews (35 receptions, 409 yards, 2 TD) are returning. Expect sophomore Darryl Stonum (14 receptions, 176 yards, 1 TD) and senior LaTerryal Savoy (4 receptions, 38 yards) to see a decent amount of action. The offensive line will be the biggest strength of this Wolverine offense or at the very least it’ll be the most experienced. Senior OT Mark Ortmann is a massive anchor on the line and will be entering his third year as a starter. Another potential three-year starter: junior OG Stephen Schilling has started 24 of 25 career games. Schilling was voted the team’s top lineman last year and moves to guard after after starting 22 games at right tackle. There’s going to be a lot of competition among the linemen since many different guys saw significant action during the ‘08 season. The Michigan offense will be better than 109th in the country this coming fall, but they’ll have to find a signal caller who can effectively run the Rodriguez spread.
I would argue the bigger disappointment of last season wasn’t the inexperienced Michigan offense, but the defense. They had a good number of returning starters and yet performed pretty poorly over the course of the season. The addition of former Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson as the defensive coordinator and a switch to the 3-4 defense may prove to be valuable (although ‘Cuse and University of Texas fans weren’t terribly enamored with Robinson). The team MVP from last year: senior DE Brandon Graham (46 tackles, 20 TFL, 10.0 sacks) is back and should lead the Wolverines in sacks for a 3rd straight year. The top two tacklers from a year ago: junior LB Obi Ezeh (98 tackles, 7 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT) and junior LB Jonas Mouton (76 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 sack) are also back. In the secondary, senior S Stevie Brown (64 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT) and junior CB Donavan Warren (52 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 INT) are the most experienced returnees. The biggest questions will come on the defensive line where Graham is the only guy back with any significant experience. It’ll be interesting to see how the Wolverine adjusts not only to the inexperience in some areas, but the arrival of the 3rd defensive coordinator in as many years.
Reasons for Optimism: Really there’s no way that the ‘09 campaign will be worse than last year’s season. The current Wolverine players have a full year with this staff under their belts and I expect they will look better on both sides of the ball, especially offense. Even if they each have no collegiate experience, freshman QBs Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are better fits for the spread-option offense than any of the ‘08 Michigan QBs. Also I’d be surprised if Brandon Minor doesn’t have a great senior season as well. Like the second year of Rodriguez at West Virginia, the offense (and team generally) will look way better. Also, Brandon Graham should lead the Big Ten in sacks and terrorize opposing QBs. A half decent offense would have won at least 2-3 more games last season and I’d say the offense will definitely be improved.
Reasons for Pessimism: So, there are two new quarterbacks and a whole lot of question marks up and down the roster… how’s this different than the last offseason? Okay, the situation is slightly better but teams quarterbacked by true freshmen typically have their struggles and I don’t see Nick Sheridan being any higher than 3rd on the depth chart this Fall (that may be a ‘Reason for Optimism’). The defense probably won’t improve on last year’s numbers since there’s such a lack of experience up front and a new scheme to learn as well. The schedule is manageable, but Penn State and Ohio State come to the Big House and those two teams will be among the best in the country. Heck if the QB situation isn’t stable, the season opener against Western Michigan could be an upset… I mean crazier home losses have happened (see: Appalachian State in ‘07 and Toledo in ‘08).
Season Prediction: This will be an improved Michigan team, but they’ll almost certainly have to depend on a true freshman at the most vital position on offense: quarterback. The non-conference schedule is generous enough to provide the Wolverines with at least 2-3 wins, although I could see a Western Michigan upset in week one. There are toss-up games at Illinois and Wisconsin which will require the Wolverines stealing a game on the road. The aforementioned Top 10 opponents: Ohio State and Penn State won’t be easy home games either. I see noticeable improvement, but a 5-7 record that could make folks in Ann Arbor restless. I could also see 6 or 7 wins, but not much more next year. The 2010 season will be the year that Rodriguez and the new-look Wolverines take the Big Ten by storm… if ever.
Top Web Destinations: Go Blue Wolverine or UMGoBlue
